Until 2021, Armenia benefited from the GSP+ preferential regime in its trade relations with the EU, under which preferential import tariffs applied to many product groups. However, having been an upper middle income country for three consecutive years, Armenia lost the GSP+ preferential regime as of 1 January 2022.
The need to establish a preferential customs regime was especially acute in 2026, when obstacles arose with the import of goods in the main market for the sale of non-metallic products of Armenian origin, Russia. Because of the Russian restrictions applied since May, Armenia’s potential export losses in 2026 could reach up to USD 260 million, other things being equal, which is equivalent to 3.1% of Armenia’s total merchandise exports in 2025 (including re-exports) and to about 7.4% of exports of local products. At the same time, the potential loss of transit exports through the territory of Russia to other EAEU member states is estimated at around USD 3 million in 2026.
The EU proposal for trade liberalization is planned to be discussed at the upcoming session of the European Parliament. If approved, most products of Armenian origin will be exempted from import duties for two years, at the same time, within the framework of EU market protection, tariff quotas will be applied to some products. In this article, we have tried to estimate the real magnitude and possible perspectives of these measures.
Which part of exports to the EU receives a "green light"
In 2025, Armenia exported USD 667 million worth of goods to the EU under 1166 codes of the 8-digit HS classification. These privileges apply to 1100 of the 1166 codes mentioned, and in monetary value USD 400 million out of USD 667 million. According to the EU’s estimate, in the event of the implementation of the measures, the annual volume of duties paid less will amount to about 3 million euros (EUR 2.475 million in 2027, EUR 2.97 million in 2028).
Among the leading product groups exported to the EU, the preferential regime does not apply only to the export of molybdenum, copper, and zinc ore and concentrate, but it applies to the export of other leading products, such as ferro-molybdenum, aluminum foil, and clothing.
The export potential to the EU could grow
Exports of the products exempted from EU import duties under the trade liberalisation also account for a significant share of Armenia’s total exports. According to our estimates, in 2025 Armenia exported around USD 3.5 billion worth of products of Armenian origin, more than two thirds of which qualify for the proposed preferences.
Combined with the government’s export promotion measures, these preferences could change the level of diversification of our exports, redirecting towards the EU the flows that previously went to the EAEU, in particular to Russia. Under the measures, 91% of the 8-digit codes of the product groups exported to Russia according to 2025 data are exempted from import duties.
Tariff quotas on certain product types
However, there are certain restrictions in terms of fruits and vegetables, as quotas are set for imports to the EU with zero tariffs, particularly for apricots, grapes, plums, peaches, cherries, strawberries, cucumbers and pears. After exceeding the set quota, the regular tariffs are applied. As can be seen from the graph, in most cases the tariff quotas are significantly less than the actual export figures in 2025, for example, in the case of plums, the quota is only 13% of the actual exports, and in the case of apricots, it is 16%.
The mentioned small volumes are not so much due to the EU’s intention to protect its own market, but rather to the EU’s methodology and practices. The quota sizes were determined taking into account the data on exports by registered businesses in 2025, which are available in the UN Comtrade database. Meanwhile, especially in the case of fruits and vegetables, the majority of exports are made by individuals. In this respect, our government should perhaps have been more persistent in fully representing the interests of Armenia’s fresh fruit and vegetable exporters.
