- Since May, Russia has imposed restrictions on a number of products of Armenian origin and products exported from Armenia. If these restrictions continue until the end of the year, all else being equal, Armenia’s potential export losses could amount to around USD 260 million. This is equivalent to 0.9% of Armenia’s 2025 GDP and 3.1% of Armenia’s total merchandise exports in 2025 (including re-exports).
- Part of the potential USD 260 million loss in exports to the Russian market will most likely be absorbed through higher domestic consumption and exports to alternative markets. Therefore, the actual impact on both exports and GDP will be much more limited.
- It should be noted that the Russian restrictions apply not only to imports of products subject to quarantine control into the Russian market, but also to transit exports through Russian territory to other EAEU member states. The potential loss in exports of these products to other EAEU member states is estimated at around USD 3 million.
In addition, in May Russia banned the import and circulation of certain batches of “Jermuk” mineral water produced in Armenia, citing hydrocarbonate levels above the permitted limit. The sale of brandy and wines produced by three Armenian companies on the Russian market was also banned. Exports of these products are not included in our estimates.
In June, Russia imposed restrictions on all fish products imported from Armenia by suspending their certification, which in effect fully halted imports of Armenian fish products. From 12 June, Russia also restricted imports of all products subject to quarantine control that are of Armenian origin or exported from Armenia.
Methodological note: The estimate is based on the volumes of these products exported from Armenia to Russia in June to December 2025. For flowers, export data for May to December were used.
